High-Flying Meloni Bets Big on Judicial Reform Referendum

United Kingdom - 7dayes News Agency

High-Flying Meloni Bets Big on Judicial Reform Referendum

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is placing her political future on the line with a crucial nationwide referendum on judicial reform, slated for late March. At a time when Meloni is leading Italy's most stable government in years, the outcome of this vote could either consolidate her grip on power and bolster her image as an invincible leader, or backfire with potentially devastating consequences.

The referendum, scheduled for March 22-23, represents a high-stakes maneuver. A victory would solidify her authority and reinforce her image as politically invulnerable. However, a defeat could significantly weaken her standing. Italian history is replete with instances where referendums have morphed into votes of confidence in the government; former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, for example, was forced to step down after a failed referendum on constitutional reform in 2016.

By venturing into judicial reform, Meloni is wading into one of Italy's most sensitive and complex political arenas. This move exposes her to accusations of interfering with the judiciary's independence, which the right-wing has long accused of leftist bias. This debate has deep historical roots; the Italian right still smarts from landmark corruption cases that purged the Christian Democrat establishment in the 1990s, and the ghost of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who died in 2023, continues to loom over the discussion. Berlusconi consistently complained that the 35 criminal cases against him were motivated by left-wing judges, whom he branded a "cancer of democracy."

Despite the caution of successive governments regarding major restructuring of the legal system, Meloni appears ready to press ahead. Supporters of the reform argue that the proposed changes will modernize a judicial system criticized for slowness, politicization, and lack of accountability, bringing it closer to other European models. The technical changes involve separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors and restructuring judicial oversight bodies.

By elevating these issues to a national priority and taking them to the ballot box, Meloni has transformed these technical changes into a direct test of her authority. Vice Justice Minister Francesco Paolo Sisto views the reform as essential for enhancing fairness and public trust in the courts, likening the separation of judges from prosecutors to ensuring impartiality, much like a referee should not be from the same city as one of the competing teams.

Critics, however, perceive more insidious motives, viewing the reforms as an attempt to undermine judicial independence and increase political control over prosecutors. This perception is reinforced by the government's increasingly confrontational rhetoric toward the courts. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has accused parts of the judiciary of acting as a political "opposition" to the government, while Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini routinely casts judges as politically motivated and disconnected from public sentiment.

Meloni herself has often framed judicial rulings as obstacles to her agenda. In a recent press conference, she blamed court decisions for thwarting her attempts to pass tough law-and-order measures, questioning: "How can one defend the security of Italians if every initiative meant to do so is systematically annulled by some judges?"

For her opponents, this rhetoric is precisely what fuels the impression that the reform is more about asserting dominance in a long-standing power struggle than about pursuing judicial efficiency. The tension between Italy's judicial and political classes dates back to the "Mani Pulite" (Clean Hands) investigations of the early 1990s, which exposed a vast corruption network that eradicated an entire generation of politicians. On the right, this purge hardened into a lasting grievance: the belief that the judiciary is an unelected political actor with unwarranted moral standing.

Experts suggest this reform is a political attempt to control the judiciary. Piercamillo Davigo, a former prosecutor involved in the "Mani Pulite" team, states: "It's an attempt to control the judiciary, as in Italy they are strong and really independent, not ruled by politicians. This reform will be damaging to independence and weaken the power of courts, giving the government more power as the government controls the disciplinary court." Davigo rejects the government's claim that judges obstruct policy for political ends, arguing that courts were instead enforcing legal constraints, including European law, on government initiatives.

Opposition leaders echo this critique. Giuseppe Conte, leader of the populist 5Star Movement, argues that the reform does little to address chronic delays in the justice system and instead forms part of a broader institutional power grab. "The real goal is to divide and rule," Conte said, accusing the government of seeking a justice system "that no longer disturbs those in command."

The risk for Meloni is not legal or procedural, but political. The judicial reform pits Meloni against a vocal and well-organized constituency with deep roots in the state. Similar proposals during Berlusconi's first government in the mid-1990s triggered protests and contributed to the collapse of his coalition. Successors learned a lesson: avoid the fight. Meloni's decision, unforced by external pressures, can partly be explained by her personal trajectory. She entered politics during the upheaval of the 1990s and carries no personal baggage from that era. She is operating from a position of strength, leading a stable and popular government.

Polls suggest the gamble is finely balanced. Recent surveys show opponents of the reform slightly ahead, although awareness of the details remains low. A recent poll by YouTrend forecast a win for opponents if turnout is low (51% against), whereas with higher turnout, supporters would win (52.6% to 47.4%). A poll by SWG found 38% supported the reform versus 37% against, with 25% undecided. Lorenzo Pregliasco, of the YouTrend polling agency, described the vote as an "unprecedented challenge" for Meloni, noting that mobilizing opposition is often easier than building support for a complex reform, and center-left voters have historically been more reliable in participating in referendums.

Meloni could attempt to politicize the vote, turning it into a plebiscite on her leadership. However, this strategy carries its own risks. She has instead sought to distance herself from the outcome, stressing she would not resign in the event of defeat. Nevertheless, she will have to own the result. "If you're the prime minister and you put a reform to a referendum, it's inevitably also a vote on your government," Pregliasco stated. If she wins, the government could build on that momentum and potentially force early elections, according to political analysts. Meloni has stated that early elections are "not on her radar." Conversely, a defeat could revive the opposition, opening the field for the 2027 elections. If Meloni loses, she would no longer be seen as "invincible," Pregliasco noted. "Her image as an effective and decisive winner would be damaged, and the political climate would change."